This year, we're making 200 Halloween goodie bags.
And I'm not talking about those little bags with a few pieces of candy.
I'm talking FULL-SIZE candy bars, sports cards, Halloween toys, Ring Pops. The whole nine yards.
We've also got caramel apples, Garrett's popcorn, road sodas and mini champagne for the parents.
And who's putting all these bags together?
My real estate team.
During work hours.
When I told everyone what we were doing, the response was pretty much unanimous.
"Here we go again."
Nicole thinks I'm crazy. She also says I'm excessive at everything.
She's probably right.
Especially when she starts asking how much all this stuff costs.
But I can't just hand a kid one piece of candy. I want them opening that bag and thinking, HOLY CRAP! LOOK AT ALL THIS STUFF!
And on Halloween, I'll be outside dressed as Johnny Lawrence from The Karate Kid. Red jacket and everything. Halloween music blasting, handing out bags, having a great time.
And yes, a rare bottle of Napa open.
I think it goes back to how much I loved Halloween growing up.
In the '90s, our neighborhood in the South Side suburbs was absolute CHAOS.
I swear there were thousands of kids.
You'd see minivans pulling up and unloading kids by the dozens. People would drive in from other neighborhoods just to trick-or-treat.
It was THE place to be.
And back then, you didn't go trick-or-treating with your parents. You grabbed your friends and took off.
Our goal was to hit as many houses as humanly possible.
I remember dragging around this giant pillowcase filled with candy. And I swear it used to be colder on Halloween back then.
You'd be freezing, carrying around this massive bag, trying to hit one more street.
And the worst thing was getting to a house with a bowl sitting outside.
EMPTY.
Some kid had already cleaned it out.
Of course, Halloween wasn't all candy.
My friends and I used to ride our bikes up to Jewel to buy shaving cream.
We'd mess with the cans using paper clips so they'd spray farther.
Now, before anybody judges me, this was strictly for self-defense.
You never knew when someone was going to come after you with a can of shaving cream or a carton of eggs.
Eventually we'd make it back, dump our candy out, and my dad would immediately start taking his share.
And the entire day, you could smell my mom's chili and zucchini bread cooking. A tradition we still keep with our kids today.
My brother Luke still lives in the house we grew up in. Halloween isn't nearly as crazy there anymore. The minivans don't show up like they used to.
But I still remember how much fun it was.
And when we bought our first house, I figured if we're going to do Halloween, we're going to DO Halloween.
I guess I've become the house I would've loved to trick-or-treat at as a kid.
Although I'm not sure the guy handing out candy back then was drinking a bottle of Napa wine that cost more than my entire Halloween haul.
That empty candy bowl reminds me of what's happening in Chicago real estate right now.
Except in real estate, the bowl usually isn't empty.
Sometimes the homeowner just turned off the porch light and brought the candy inside.
As we head into November, you're going to see fewer properties on the open market.
But fewer listings doesn't mean fewer homes for sale.
I've been having this conversation with sellers all week.
I have a couple of properties in the downtown markets that have been sitting longer than I'd like.
Good properties. Just not as many buyers downtown right now as we'd see in the spring.
The sellers are still living there. They don't have to move tomorrow.
So I told them, why keep sitting on the market through November, December and January, watching the market time add up?
Let's take them off.
In our MLS, once a property has been off the market for 91 days, its market time can reset.
That puts us closer to February, when the spring market is getting going, with a fresh market time and hopefully a larger buyer pool.
That won't fix a bad price.
But for the right property, the timing can make a big difference.
Then I had another seller reach out this week.
They're finishing up some work on their property and should be ready in a few weeks.
Normally, we'd get everything done and launch.
But launching right before the holidays? In this market?
I suggested something different.
Let's put it in the pocket market, price it a little higher than we normally would, and see what happens.
If someone wants to pay that number, great.
If not, we haven't spent November and December accumulating market time. We'll launch it publicly after the first of the year at a price that makes sense for that market.
Here's what a lot of people are going to miss.
They'll look online, see fewer listings, and assume there's nothing available.
But some of those sellers haven't gone anywhere.
They're just not advertising their properties to everybody.
There's a difference between less inventory and less inventory you can see.
As for our house, the porch light will be on and the bowl won't be empty.
Apparently, I have a problem with doing anything in moderation.
Just ask Nicole. |
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Buyer Demand: Up slightly from last week. Nothing dramatic, but a little more activity.
Inventory: Up slightly, which is unusual for late October. We actually saw a few more new listings hit the market than we'd normally expect this time of year.
Mortgage Rates: Down slightly from last week. We did seem to get a little bit of a push from the improvement.
Multiple Offers: About the same as last week. Most of the competition is still centered around brand-new listings, especially in the hotter markets.
Contracts: About on par with last week. No major changes in the number of properties going under contract.
Price Changes: We saw a good amount of price reductions this week, surprisingly even in some of the hotter neighborhoods. Sellers are adjusting to the current market. |
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The Nordstrom Rack Market
This is what inventory starts to feel like around the holidays. You walk into Nordstrom Rack, and there's plenty of stuff on the racks, but finding exactly what you want in your size is another story. That's kind of what we're seeing in real estate. There's still inventory out there, but a lot of the best-priced, move-in ready properties have already been picked over. And as more sellers pull their listings, the selection on the open market is only going to get thinner. There are still good opportunities, but you have to do a little more digging.
Sellers Are Finally Getting Motivated
For most of the year, sellers haven't had much reason to negotiate. If they didn't get their price, they could just wait. But as we get closer to the holidays, I'm starting to see that change. Some sellers who have been sitting are becoming more realistic about pricing and negotiations. We're even seeing price changes in some of the hotter neighborhoods. Not everyone is motivated, but we're starting to see more flexibility than we did earlier in the year.
The Backlog Buyers Are Making Moves
Normally, a lot of buyers who start looking in September and October end up carrying their searches into January. But this year, I'm seeing more of those backlog buyers actually making offers now. Some have leases that don't expire until spring, but they remember how competitive the market was earlier this year. They'd rather figure out their leases later than risk missing the right property now. It's not a huge wave of demand, but it's a noticeable change. |
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Single Family Homes
We didn't see a ton of new single-family inventory hit this week. Anything priced well and showing well is still going to have a line around the corner. That said, we're starting to see the higher-end market slow down a bit, and even when properties get multiple offers, buyers aren't being quite as aggressive as they were earlier in the year. As we head into November, I expect more sellers to hold off on listing publicly and test the pocket market instead. Inventory is already extremely tight, and some of what's available may become harder to find. Overall, this is a hardcore seller's market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
We're seeing a decent amount of inventory hit, but it's nowhere near enough to meet demand. Anything priced well and showing well is absolutely flying. These remain some of the hottest neighborhoods around. Everybody wants to live here, and there just isn't enough inventory to go around. As we head into November, I expect more sellers to test the private market before going public, which could make the already limited inventory look even tighter. Overall, this is a hardcore seller's market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
We saw a little new inventory hit this week, along with something we haven't seen much of in these neighborhoods lately: price changes. Buyers are getting pickier, and you can feel the market cooling down a bit. Properties are gaining market time and sitting longer, especially anything overpriced or at the higher end of its immediate neighborhood. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these sellers pull their listings as we head into November rather than continue accumulating market time. Well-priced properties are still moving, but the urgency isn't what it was earlier in the year. Overall, I'd call this a mild seller's market.
Old Town
We didn't see much new inventory hit this week. Well-priced properties are moving quickly, especially walk-ups on the tree-lined streets in the heart of Old Town. That's what's driving the market. Properties that are overpriced, outside the prime pockets, or in high-rises without in-unit laundry are sitting longer and seeing price changes. As we head into November, I expect some of that slower-moving inventory to come off the open market, while the best properties may continue to trade privately. Demand remains strong, but it's very property-specific. Overall, this is a seller's market.
West Loop
We saw some inventory hit this week, along with more price changes and properties going under contract. Buyers are getting pickier, and there's very little urgency to make a decision. We're seeing buyers tour properties two or three times before making an offer, and some aren't even interested in competing when multiple bids come in. Walk-ups and townhomes are still performing well, but much of the remaining inventory has been pretty mediocre. I expect some sellers who've been sitting to reconsider staying on the market through the holidays. Overall, there's a slight edge to buyers.
South Loop
We didn't see much new inventory hit this week, but we're continuing to see price changes and properties going under contract. Even well-positioned properties aren't moving particularly fast. There's definitely demand for updated, move-in ready properties with all the bells and whistles, but overall activity remains slow. Buyers have very little urgency, and many are coming from surrounding neighborhoods looking for a better deal. I expect some sellers to pull their listings rather than continue accumulating market time through the holidays. Even with limited inventory, there isn't enough demand to create much competition. Overall, this is a buyer's market.
New East Side & The Loop
We didn't see much new inventory hit this week, but we're seeing more price changes than properties going under contract. Inventory has been building, especially in the higher-end luxury market, where properties continue to sit. Sellers are starting to get anxious, and I expect more listings to come off the market as November approaches. Some of those sellers will likely wait until the spring market to relaunch, while others may remain open to selling privately. So even if the active inventory numbers drop, that doesn't necessarily mean all those properties are unavailable. Activity remains slow, and buyers have negotiating power. Overall, this is a buyer's market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
It's been a slower week with limited new inventory. We're continuing to see price changes and properties going under contract. Completely move-in ready properties with all the bells and whistles are still performing well, especially in the Gold Coast. But even when they get multiple offers, buyers aren't going crazy. In Lincoln Park, something might sell $100,000 over asking, while here it might be $10,000 or $20,000. It's a completely different market. Higher-end properties that need updating are sitting longer, and I'm having conversations with sellers about whether it makes more sense to pull their listings and relaunch closer to February. Others may remain available privately. Overall, there's a slight edge to buyers.
The Big Picture:
Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories, Downtown Core: Is feeling more like a balanced market.
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