Current Market Conditions
My daughter Remi turned five on the 14th. People always say kids grow up fast, but you don’t fully understand what that means until you watch it happen right in front of you. One minute they’re wobbling around in diapers, and the next minute they’re asking you very seriously whether princesses sleep with their crowns on.
There are two things Remi loves more than anything: Christmas and princesses. So for her birthday every year, we have a tradition, The Walnut Room at Macy’s.
If you haven’t been, it’s quite the experience. Is the food great? No. Is the service great? Also no. But does it feel like Christmas? Absolutely. It’s about as close to stepping into a snow globe as you can get.
There’s something special about walking past the windows on State Street, then heading upstairs and seeing that massive decorated Christmas tree. I don’t know what it is, but just looking at that tree flips a switch, you feel lighter, happier, almost like a kid again.
Once you finally get into the restaurant (even with a reservation, you’re waiting), the real magic happens. Princesses walk from table to table, giving kids a little Wishing Stone. They ask them to close their eyes, make a wish, and then sprinkle fairy dust on them.
When Remi makes her wish, she squeezes her eyes shut as tightly as she can, like she’s using every ounce of hope she has to make that wish come true. Watching that moment… it’s pretty incredible as a parent. It’s where the imperfections fade away and the purpose of the whole tradition shows up.
And that’s exactly why getting a reservation at the Walnut Room is almost impossible. They open the slots, and within minutes the season sells out.
People don’t go for the food. They don’t go for the service. They go for the experience, because experiences like that are rare.
And that’s where the real estate market is right now.
Listings, good listings, new listings, are becoming hard to come by. A lot of sellers have officially thrown in the towel for the year. They’re pulling their places off the market, wanting to avoid the holiday chaos or the risk of building market time.
Pocket listings are spiking. These are properties that could sell but aren’t openly listed, just quietly mentioned in conversations and agent networks. Sellers want to test the waters without jumping all the way in.
So when a real, new listing comes onto the open market, especially in a desirable area, it becomes the Walnut Room reservation. It’s rare. It’s special. And buyers know it. That’s why we’re still seeing same-day activity, multiple offers, and fast sales on those properties.
People aren’t chasing everything. They’re chasing what’s scarce. What feels special. What’s hard to come by.
Just like that Christmas magic at the Walnut Room.
As we move into the last stretch of the year, expect inventory to tighten even more. But remember: scarcity creates opportunity, for both buyers who move quickly and sellers who price and position their homes correctly.
Enjoy the season, and may you catch a little of that holiday magic yourself.
With the Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand was strong this week, and we saw a noticeable push. That is pretty typical leading up to a major holiday, as buyers try to squeeze things in before everything slows down. I expect this momentum to hold through about the 21st or 22nd. After that, activity will likely be more hit or miss until we get past January 4th.
Inventory dropped this week, and as I mentioned above, new listings will be scarce from now through the end of the year. This is the time when many sellers step back, so do not expect much fresh inventory until we get into January.
Rates dipped this week, as the Fed announced another rate cut. This is a positive sign for the market and should help keep buyers engaged as we head into the new year.
Contracts were up this week. With limited inventory and strong buyer demand, it is no surprise we are seeing more deals come together. The imbalance between supply and demand continues to push contract activity higher.
Multiple bids were up this week on new inventory. Existing listings are not seeing the same level of competition, but when a well-priced new property hits the market, it moves quickly and often with multiple offers.
Market Trends
What's Trending?
This is not a full trend yet, but it is something buyers should start preparing for: the leaseback. A lot of buyers plan to wait until after the first of the year to jump in, hoping to close before their current lease expires. But here is what is going to start popping up more and more, sellers in the most sought-after areas asking for leasebacks. You will see homes hit the market in January, want a 30-day close, and then ask for a free leaseback through May. This is not something sellers can typically get away with in every neighborhood, but for extremely desirable properties, they often can. It is something to watch closely, and something I will be talking about more as we get into the new year.
We are closing out one of the strongest luxury markets in history. The final stats are not out yet, but all signs point to this year going down as one of the best ever for high-end sales. As we head into next year, this will be a segment to watch closely. Will the momentum hold, or will we see a pullback? My expectation is that luxury will remain strong, and I actually suspect it could outperform even this year. The demand, confidence, and buying power at the top of the market are all still there.
Empty nesters and out-of-state buyers usually show up in big numbers during the holidays, and most of them gravitate toward the downtown market. This year, we are seeing more of these buyers than in the last couple of years, but still nowhere near the levels we saw pre-pandemic. This group is critical to the strength of the high-rise market. They are one of the main buyer pools we need to see return in order to bring that segment fully back to life. As we close out the year, this will be an important trend to watch. Do they reappear in meaningful numbers, or are we in a new era where they are less active? I do believe they will come back. The question is simply when. Keep an eye on this group as we move into the new year.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
We are getting close to Christmas now, and normally the single-family market is completely quiet at this time of year. Interestingly, we are not seeing that typical seasonal slowdown in some parts of the city. New listings in the entry-level price points are still moving very quickly. Many are getting multiple offers right away because buyers are anxiously waiting for anything new to hit the market. Homes outside that range are taking a bit longer, which is normal for this time of year.
The luxury market has definitely slowed unless a home is priced very well or offers standout, high-end features. Overall, it is a strong seller’s market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
We are still seeing a really hot market here. Any well-priced new listing is basically flying off the shelf. That said, there are some homes that are getting showings but not selling right away, so it is not like every single property is disappearing instantly. We are also starting to feel a bit of a seasonal slowdown. Earlier in the year, when something hit the market, it felt like there was a line out the door. Now there is still strong interest; it is just a little more normal, more to the door than around the block. When places do not sell right away, it usually comes down to one of two things. The price was pushed a little too high for where buyers are right now, or the home needs more work than buyers are comfortable taking on at that price. Overall, though, it is still very much a seller’s market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
In the West Loop, some of the entry-level places are still selling fairly quickly, but it honestly feels like a completely different market than West Town or some of the outskirt neighborhoods. It is acting much more like what we are seeing in River North right now. Yes, there are mid-tier and luxury listings that are moving fast, but overall the demand feels pretty light at the moment. That could be a seasonal dip, or it could be the start of a bigger trend. It is a bit early to say for sure. For now, this remains a buyer’s market.
Old Town
Old Town is still a very strong spot for sellers. Walk-ups that hit the market are flying, and many of the high-rises are actually outperforming expectations and selling faster than in most other parts of the city. The key for those buildings is pricing them correctly, but when they are priced right, they move. Overall, this remains a very hot seller’s market.
South Loop
South Loop is definitely one of the softer markets right now. We are not seeing a lot of sales, and the luxury segment is feeling it the most. Overall, there just does not seem to be much buyer demand in this area at the moment. It has been relatively quiet here since the end of the summer, so we will want to keep an eye on it. For now, this remains a buyer’s market.
New East Side & The Loop
This area is still having a hard time. We are seeing a little bit of a bump in entry-level condos that have in-unit laundry, low HOAs, and nice finishes, but outside of that, activity is pretty quiet. From around the one million mark and up, it feels like a ghost town. We have not seen as many empty nesters or in-town buyers as we expected, which is not helping demand. Overall, this remains a big buyer’s market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
The entry-level market here is still holding up. New listings with in-unit washer and dryers, low HOAs, good pricing, and nice finishes are selling, and most other entry-level condos are still moving in a reasonably quick time frame. Beyond that, it is a different story. The rest of the market is not nearly as active. The mid-tier segment has been pretty hit or miss, and the luxury market feels a lot like the Loop and New East Side right now. It is pretty much a ghost town. We are also not seeing the same boost from in-town buyers and empty nesters during the holidays that we were used to before the pandemic. There are showings and some properties are moving, but the activity is more sporadic than steady. Overall, this area is very much a buyer’s market right now.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
The Latest in Laricy
What to expect from the 2026 housing market | ChicagoNOW
Real estate expert Matt Laricy breaks down 2025 trends and explains how mortgage rates, home prices, and buyer demand could shift in the year ahead.
Chicago Holiday Home Buyers: Cautious & Ready for a Deal (Here’s How to Win) | Laricy Live E193
Thinking about buying a home in Chicago during the holidays but feeling nervous about the market? You’re not alone. Every winter I talk to buyers who are scared of overpaying, unsure about rates, and waiting for “the right deal.”Here’s the truth: the holiday season can be one of the best times to buy Chicago real estate—if you know what to look for.
What’s Happening in Chicago Real Estate This 2025 Holiday Season? | Laricy Live E192
In this Laricy Live episode, Matt Laricy shares a timely Chicago real estate update for the holiday season. Learn how the market shifts between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, including changes in buyer demand, inventory, pricing, and days on market. Matt explains what buyers and sellers should expect, why showings and listings slow in December, and how these trends create unique opportunities. If you are deciding whether to buy or sell during the holidays, this episode offers clear, data-driven insight.
Pressing Press
What to Read
- Delistings Surge as Frustrated Sellers Pull Back—and 3 Pandemic Boomtowns Are Getting Hit Hardest
- Housing market shift: Zillow’s updated ratings show the power balance in 250-plus metro
- Illinois sees decline in rate of residents moving out of state, study finds
- Interior Renderings And Details Revealed For Bally’s Casino In River West
- 6 Design Trends Making a Comeback in 2026
- Cook County property tax incentives need a refresh: study
- And for the Latest Trick … Wallpaper
- Buyers eye 2026 as the year to make their move
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
