Current Market Conditions
New Year’s Eve always carried a certain weight for me.
Growing up, it was supposed to feel special. The night everything reset. The night that mattered more than all the others. But as the years went on, it usually felt rushed. Last-minute plans. Packed bars. Overcrowded restaurants where the food was never quite as good as you hoped. It was a night full of expectations that rarely lived up to them.
But even in the mess of it, New Year’s Eve always marked a turning point. Whether you were ready or not, the clock moved forward. What was behind you stayed there. And whatever came next had to be faced.
So when it came time to get married, choosing New Year’s Eve felt right. Not because it was convenient. It was not. But because it meant something. It was a line in the sand. A moment where one chapter closed and another began at the exact same second.
My mom passed away before I got married, and she was a huge fan of Frank Lloyd Wright. She loved the Rookery. So getting married there felt like bringing a piece of her into the room. A quiet tribute, woven into the day without needing to be said out loud.
I also knew what I didn’t want. I didn’t want a long, drawn-out sit-down dinner. I didn’t want endless speeches. So we kept it simple. Food stations people could grab as they wanted, and two speeches capped at three minutes. This wasn’t a production.
It was a party.
But weddings come with nerves.
It’s a lot of money. A lot of eyeballs. A lot of pressure. Some people worry about being judged. Some worry about impressing guests. And many people get nervous about the idea of marriage itself, because marriage means saying goodbye to your old life.
It’s no longer being single.
It’s no longer being engaged.
It’s no longer just about you.
It’s about us.
For some, that shift is intimidating. For me, it wasn’t. But it was still a change. And as we rang in the new year 13 years ago, we weren’t just celebrating midnight. We were stepping into a new chapter. One that felt familiar, yet undeniably different.
And that’s exactly where the market is today.
We’re closing out 2025 and welcoming in 2026. This isn’t just the start of a new year. It’s the beginning of a new five-year cycle. Real estate tends to move in these cycles, and I believe 2020 marked the start of the last one. Now, 2026 begins the next.
The past five years told a very clear story.
Rural areas thrived.
Warm-climate states thrived.
Suburbs dominated.
Cities struggled.
People stopped working from offices.
The country replaced the city.
And for a while, it felt permanent.
But cycles don’t last forever.
As we enter this new five-year stretch, we’re already seeing early shifts. Some warm-climate markets, Florida, Texas, and Arizona, are seeing values soften and inventory rise. Markets people once said would never slow down. In parts of the suburbs, inventory is quietly building. Chicagoland suburbs remain strong, but even there, things are a touch less frenzied than a year or two ago.
These changes don’t happen overnight. They start slowly and quietly, often before most people notice. But once they take hold, they’re impossible to ignore.
At the same time, the AI race is accelerating. Jobs are changing. Some are disappearing. More people want to be seen, heard, and valued, which means more people returning to offices. Slowly but steadily, we’re seeing renewed interest in the energy of cities. Theaters, restaurants, walkable neighborhoods, culture.
Will cities rise again like a phoenix? Or will the suburbs and warm-climate states continue to dominate?
The early data suggests the shift has already begun.
Just like marriage, a new cycle can feel uncertain at the start. You don’t fully know what it will look like, or how good it can be, until you’re living it.
And just like that New Year’s Eve 13 years ago, the next chapter doesn’t erase what came before. It builds on it.
The clock is striking midnight again.
The cycle is turning.
And the next five years are officially underway.
With The Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand was the lowest of the year and is expected to remain that way until the 5th. This is typical, as this period is historically the slowest stretch of the year.
New inventory was virtually nonexistent. It is rare for sellers to list during the weeks of Christmas or New Year’s, which is typical for this time of year.
Rates remained on par with last week.
Contract activity was significantly down this week. We typically do not see a high volume of deals this time of year. While some properties did go under contract, the usual rush tends to slow around the 22nd or 23rd and picks back up after the 5th.
Multiple offer did occur on new listings and pocket listings. However, these opportunities were few and far between, so overall activity was well below normal this week.
This is a significant pause period for the market. While some may say they are busy, compared to normal market conditions, very little activity typically takes place between the 24th and the 4th.
Market Trends
What's Trending
This is the calm before the storm. The market is in a brief but meaningful pause, a moment where activity quiets before the next surge. These reset periods tend to be short-lived. Once we move past the 5th, momentum can return quickly, and when it does, competition builds fast. This is a trend to watch closely, as the shift often happens suddenly and with little warning.
A new wave of inventory is coming. Over the past month, inventory has felt a bit like Nordstrom Rack, a few good finds here and there, but not much fresh product hitting the market. Watch what happens after the first of the year. Once January begins, new listings are expected to start coming online much more quickly.
The Backlog Buyer is one to watch. These are buyers who started their search in September or October but have not yet found the right fit. They did not leave the market, they paused. They are waiting, watching, and ready to act. Once new inventory begins to hit after the first of the year, these buyers tend to move quickly. This group, combined with the typical “new year, new me” buyers, is a major reason demand accelerates so fast after the holidays.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
Activity was slower this week overall. That said, if an entry-level home comes to market, it is still moving very quickly. From now through the end of the year, we expect activity outside of entry-level pricing to remain relatively quiet due to seasonality. Once we get past the first of the year, demand should ramp up significantly and the market will become very active again. For now, this remains a strong seller’s market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
Things slowed down this week, which is not surprising given that we are in the final stretch of the holiday season. The biggest factor right now is limited new inventory coming to market. When something at entry-level pricing does come up, it continues to move very quickly. Mid-tier to luxury homes are a bit softer at the moment, largely due to fewer listings and buyers being out for the holidays. After the first of the year, we expect a significant shift in demand and increased competition, likely with buyers lining up to see new listings. For now, this remains a seller’s market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
Activity was much slower this week. Even well-priced, entry-level listings saw a bit of a pause. This is not a reflection of the market being weak, but more a result of seasonality. We do not expect to see much new inventory come to market through the end of the year. While this area had a challenging 2025 overall, it did perform noticeably better than 2024, making it one to watch as we head into 2026. For now, this remains a buyer’s market.
Old Town
Old Town continues to perform very well, though this past week was slower due to a lack of new inventory coming to market. Like most areas right now, it is also being impacted by the holiday slowdown. This is an area to keep a close eye on after the first of the year. I expect walk-up properties in particular to be extremely competitive. For now, this remains a strong seller’s market.
South Loop
The South Loop had a tough week. It has been a challenging area throughout the year, and being at the center of the holiday season only added to the slowdown. Very few properties went under contract, which is not unexpected for this time of year. On the positive side, there has been very little new inventory hitting the market, and a number of sellers chose to pull their listings. Given the higher inventory levels this area has been dealing with, this should help relieve some of that pressure. It will be interesting to see how demand responds after the first of the year. For now, this remains a strong buyer’s market.
New East Side & The Loop
This continues to be a very challenging area. The biggest factors impacting the market in 2025 were concerns around crime, elevated inventory levels, and a slower return-to-office environment. We are starting to see many of these headwinds fade, which could help set the stage for improved performance moving forward. As we head into 2026, the start of a new five-year cycle, this is an area worth watching closely for a potential shift. For now, this remains a strong buyer’s market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
This past week was slower, though that is consistent with what we are seeing across Chicago during the heart of the holiday season. In 2025, the entry-level segment showed a meaningful turnaround. The luxury market did see some solid sales as well, but those transactions typically required significant price adjustments, often twenty to thirty percent below original purchase prices, to get deals done. The main challenges this year were concerns around crime, a slower return to office, and elevated inventory levels. We are beginning to see improvement across those areas, which makes this a market to watch as we enter a new five-year cycle. Overall, this remains a strong buyer’s market.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
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Pressing Press
What to Read
- U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows
- These Are the Most Popular House Styles of the Year, According to Google
- One Illinois county charts its own path on property tax sales
- How Bloomington-Normal became the state's hot home market
- The U.S. Housing Market Has 37% More Sellers Than Buyers—More Than Double Last Year’s Gap
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
