Current Market Conditions
When I was a kid, I was obsessed with X-Men. Not like “oh yeah, I watched the cartoon” obsessed, I’m talking full on, every character memorized, will argue with you about Wolverine’s power level obsessed.
And with that came the toys.
Toy Biz made the figures, and honestly, they might still be the greatest toys ever made. But here’s the thing about me: I was never the kid who just wanted one character. I always wanted the whole set of characters when a toy release happened. The first wave dropped in 1991. I wanted all 9. Nine figures at $5 each, meant I needed $45. The problem? I was seven.
So I asked my parents for the money. What did they do? They laughed. They always gave me the same answer:
“Figure it out. If you want something in life, you work for it. Nothing is free.”
So I did.
In the 80s and 90s, it wasn’t weird to walk up to a neighbor’s door and ask if they needed help with anything. That became my business plan. I cut grass. I pulled weeds. I washed dishes. I folded clothes. I shoveled snow. I sorted receipts (yes, really). Some grandmas on the block would hand me two quarters for washing dishes, and I said “thank you” and did it anyway.
Did I enjoy any of it? Not even a little.
But I wanted those toys. My mind was set. I wasn’t going to complain or hesitate, just work
until I got it done.
And eventually… I had the whole set.
Because I did what it actually takes. Not kind of. Not almost. Not “we’ll see.” I committed.
This Market Right Now? It’s That Exact Moment.
There are parts of the market that are still on fire. Certain homes that are priced right, move-in ready, in the right pocket, are flying and selling way over asking.
And here’s what’s happening: buyers know exactly what they want… and they keep losing it.
- Off by $5K.
- Hesitate on a small appraisal gap.
- Offer “strong-ish,” but not actually the strongest.
- Hold back just a little, and that little is the difference.
They get beat again and again by someone who simply decided to win.
I’m watching it happen in real time, and it’s preventable.
We’re entering a pivotal window.
As we get closer to the holidays, this is the final stretch before things likely go absolutely insane again in Q1 and Q2.
This is the window where buyers either commit and win, or say, “Let’s just wait for the next one.”
And that “next one”? It will cost more.
So I’ll ask you exactly what my dad taught me to ask myself:
Do you actually want it?
You can’t half-want it. Not in this market. Like seven-year-old me chasing every X-Men figure, the buyers who win are the ones who go all in.
With the Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand was roughly in line with last week. Keep in mind that last week was softer because of the marathon and the three-day weekend. As we move closer to the holidays, I expect demand to taper.
We saw price cuts on inventory that has been sitting since summer.
Multiple bids remained strong this week, particularly on new listings in the outskirts.
Inventory ticked up slightly from last week, and we are still seeing a steady stream of new listings coming to market.
Rates were on par with last week.
The Downtown market was notably slow this week, particularly at the luxury price point.
Market Trends
What's Trending
Demand is the key trend to watch this fall. It is still running higher than a typical fall, but it has a different profile than spring. Showings are notably lower, even if buyers getting outbid in the outskirts might disagree. The question is whether demand will hold or dip as we head into the holidays. My view is that it will likely hold, but it is worth watching closely.
Boomerang buyers are a growing presence. Many who left during the pandemic are now returning to the city, often due to office returns or a desire to be closer to family. This is a trend to watch and could continue to build.
Ready, aim, aim syndrome. We are seeing a seasonal pattern where buyers get right to the brink of writing, then cool off. It is showing up with our clients and in calls from other agents on our listings—the offer is “coming,” and then it is not. This is typical for fall, and I expect it to persist through the season.
Bucking the trend. While many markets nationwide are easing, our outskirts remain exceptionally hot. The key question for fall is whether this momentum will carry through the rest of the year or begin to align with the broader slowdown. It is one to watch this fall.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
The single-family market remains very strong. As we saw last week, the entry-level segment is the hottest, while the high-end is starting to sit longer, which is likely to continue through the holiday season. If an entry-level home is priced correctly and move-in ready, it is selling well over asking. Overall, it is still a sellers’ market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
The market here is still moving fast. The hottest properties are currently three-bedroom duplex-downs and townhomes, which is surprising since this segment is usually slower this time of year. Inventory is at its lowest point all year. Overall, it is a sellers’ market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
This remains a challenging market. Showings are hit or miss. Entry-level, move-in-ready condos are holding up best, but most other sectors see showings come in waves. The high-end luxury market remains very quiet. Overall, it is a buyers’ market.
Old Town
The market is running hot across the board. With inventory extremely low, every segment is performing well, including high-rises. Overall, it is a sellers’ market.
South Loop
This market remains challenging. Entry-level condos are holding their own, and some have gone under contract, but they are underperforming compared to the broader market. Mid-range and luxury activity continues to be very slow. Overall, it is a buyers’ market.
New East Side & The Loop
Overall activity was moderate this week. Entry-level condos saw steady activity, and a few luxury properties priced below market or in exceptional condition went under contract. Despite this, the market remains slow. Overall, it is a buyers’ market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
The entry-level price point performed well this week. Listings with in-unit washer/dryer, low HOA fees, and strong presentation are selling, showing momentum we have not seen in a while. Mid-market and luxury properties are moving very slowly. Overall, it is a buyer's market.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
The Latest in Laricy
Laricy Live E190 - 2025 Q3 Market Insights: Numbers Don’t Lie
In this episode of Laricy Live, Matt Laricy breaks down key Q3 2025 real estate trends. From closings and inventory to market time and sales prices, he explains what the numbers really say about where the housing market is headed. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or industry insider, get clear insights and honest analysis, Laricy style.
Laricy Uncorked E1 - Pop the Cork: Matt & J Launch Laricy Uncorked!
Welcome to Laricy Uncorked! Top Chicago realtor Matt Laricy and his longtime friend J Maggio kick back, pour a glass, and get real about real estate, wine, and everything in between. From behind-the-scenes stories to sharp market insights, Matt and J keep it laid-back, unfiltered, and entertaining. Whether you’re a real estate pro or just here for the laughs, you’re in for a good time.
Pressing Press
What to Read
- City Hall Brandon Johnson Chicago Mayor Johnson’s $16.6B budget would revive corporate head tax, tax social media companies
- Johnson's $16.6B budget revives the head tax — and tests the limits of his City Council backing
- Renters Say Their Priorities Have Changed But Landlords Aren't Keeping Up
- Home prices rose 2% in September, as listings topped pre-pandemic levels, new Homes.com data shows
- Johnson expected to revive head tax in 2026 budget plan
- For the 9th year in a row, Chicago is Condé Nast’s No. 1 big US city
- Chicago's $3M homes selling fast as wealthy buyers compete for rarities
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
