Current Market Conditions
I don’t know about you, but I love the holidays. I’ve said it before, I’m a big tradition guy. Call me old-fashioned, but traditions matter.
One of my favorite parts of the season is the food. It’s funny how a dish can make or break a holiday, and how you remember the great ones.
My all-time favorite? White Castle stuffing.
Here’s how it started. Early on, when I was dating my wife, Nicole, I went to her family’s house for Thanksgiving. They were cooking, but everything was boxed or canned. Boxed mashed potatoes? I couldn’t believe it. I come from a family of home, cooked, big-spread traditions.
They didn’t care, food just wasn’t a big deal for them. Whatever was easiest.
So I (politely) kicked everyone out of the kitchen and worked with what we had. Their family tradition is football and White Castle for lunch, yes, sliders on Turkey Day.
With limited fresh ingredients, I asked for a Crave Case and said, “I’ve been wanting to try something, White Castle stuffing.” The room groaned. “That sounds terrible. You’ll ruin Thanksgiving.” I said, “Look, we’ve got canned veggies and boxed potatoes. Trust me, nothing will be worse than that.”
This was maybe the second time I’d met them, so the trust level was, developing. They’re nice people, so they humored me. I spent the day cooking. When dinner came, I served the stuffing. Everyone tried it, begrudgingly at first. But a few bites in, the mood changed. They loved it. I explained: most stuffing is sausage and bread. A slider is bread and fatty meat. Done right, it’s perfect with turkey. It became the first dish to disappear, and a new tradition was born.
Sometimes what you expect to be awful ends up being the best thing on the table.
And that’s where the market is right now.
We’ve officially entered the fourth quadrant, the Holiday Market. Traditionally, this is the slowest stretch of the year: deal season. Prices tend to soften, deal-seekers push hard, and you see more price cuts than price bumps. People assume the worst.
But this year is different. Certain segments are at record-low inventory, and demand for those homes is still strong. Multiple offers remain common where we usually don’t see them in November–December—think duplex downs, townhomes, and single-family homes in the right areas and price points.
Outside of the downtown mid-tier to luxury segment, many parts of the market are set up for the strongest holiday performance we’ve seen in recent years.
Let’s not get overzealous: it won’t rival the spring. We’re still at roughly a quarter of spring’s demand. But compared with a typical holiday season, expect more sales and more multiple bids than usual. It won’t be the “normal” rough Nov/Dec many anticipate.
Will this become a new tradition? Probably not. But like my White Castle stuffing, sometimes what you think will be horrible becomes a pleasant surprise.
With the Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand held steady with last week. As expected, we’re in the seasonal slowdown phase, and we’ll likely see demand continue to taper off through the remainder of the year.
New inventory came in on par with last week. That’s unusual for this season, when fresh listings usually dry up. The difference this year: certain areas are performing well, and ultra-low supply is encouraging would-be spring sellers to list now to take advantage of motivated buyers.
Mortgage rates spiked early last week and then retreated to roughly three-year lows. That swing has re-energized buyers who were on the sidelines, and we’re seeing renewed interest and better affordability heading into the holidays.
Multiple offers are still common on well-priced homes in high-demand areas. Even as some pockets cool, properties that price and present well are drawing multiple bids.
Downtown mid-tier to luxury remains quiet. The few listings moving have reset to today’s pricing, yet many homes still struggle to generate showings.
We’re seeing an uptick in price reductions as sellers push to wrap transactions before year-end. Expect sharper pricing, more repositioned listings, and motivated negotiations heading into the holiday stretch.
Market Trends
What's Trending
Some sellers are tapping out for the holidays. Many who didn’t sell this year are pulling listings now and planning a fresh start next year—a trend to watch in the coming weeks.
We’re seeing a wave of buyer fatigue: shoppers who’ve been at it for months are pressing pause and hoping for better luck next year. I get it. Just remember, the highest demand typically hits in spring, which can mean more competition and fewer concessions. If you can stay in the game now, or prepare strategically, you may find better terms before year-end.
Travel is one of the biggest variables I’m watching right now. The holiday season always brings a surge in travel, and it can have a real effect on housing activity. After all, if people aren’t in town, they’re not buying. We saw how summer travel slowed momentum in July and August, and it’ll be worth watching whether that pattern repeats through the holidays.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
This remains one of the hottest markets, especially at the entry level. Homes in this range are receiving multiple offers and often selling well over the asking price. I am seeing a slight slowdown in the higher-end market, but properties that are newer, priced appropriately, or show exceptionally well are still commanding strong premiums. While we typically see some seasonal slowing during the holiday season, that hasn’t been the case this year due to continued low inventory. Overall, it remains a very strong seller’s market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
The market here remains red hot. New, move-in-ready listings that check all the boxes and are priced at market are flying. The properties that are sitting are those where sellers overshot on price. Inventory is extremely low, making this the hottest market in town. Demand for townhomes and duplex-downs is particularly strong, which is rare for this time of year. Overall, this is a big seller’s market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
The market has been unpredictable. Some homes move quickly while others sit, with the luxury segment experiencing the most pressure. That said, well-priced listings that show beautifully are still selling fast. It is surprising that what was once the hottest part of town now has entry-level listings sitting. Overall, this is a buyer’s market.
Old Town
This area continues to perform very well. Walk-ups and smaller buildings are leading the way, and the high-rise market remains solid. Days on market are very low, and that trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Overall, this remains a strong seller’s market.
South Loop
This remains a challenging market. Even entry-level homes are taking longer than usual to sell. The area was hit hard during the pandemic and continues to carry higher-than-normal inventory similar to the Loop. Move-in-ready properties priced below market are selling, but overall conditions are difficult. For now, this is a buyer’s market.
New East Side & The Loop
This market continues to struggle, with the luxury segment hit the hardest. To move high-end listings, pricing often needs a full reset. Entry-level, move-in-ready condos priced correctly are selling quickly, but most other listings are not. The hope is that down sizers and empty nesters bring activity during the holiday season. Overall, this is a big buyer’s market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
We are effectively seeing two different markets. Entry-level, move-in-ready condos with in-unit laundry and low HOA fees are selling fast. Mid-tier activity is hit-or-miss, with showings coming in waves. The luxury segment is largely stalled; without significant pricing reductions, often below 2019 levels, listings tend to sit with little activity. Overall, this remains a strong buyer’s market.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
The Latest in Laricy
The Big Merger | Laricy Live E191
This week on Laricy Live, we break down the wave of consolidation sweeping the real estate industry. Major companies are merging, teams are joining forces, and the landscape is shifting fast. What’s driving these moves—market pressures, efficiency strategies, or something bigger? And what does it mean for agents, buyers, and sellers? Will bigger really mean better? Tune in as we unpack how consolidation could shape the future of real estate.
Laricy Uncorked E2 - Pour Decisions & Real Estate Confessions
Matt Laricy is back on Laricy Uncorked with J Maggio, Jamie Daly, and Jessica Foster for another round of laughs, stories, and sips. The crew dives into their favorite wines, wild client experiences, and candid real estate insights—all in true Uncorked fashion. It’s a mix of humor, honesty, and behind-the-scenes moments you won’t want to miss.
World Famous Thanksgiving White Castle Stuffing is BACK!
Be the King of Thanksgiving with this amazing White Castle stuffing recipe! Follow along to make yours at home and we promise you'll win Thanksgiving with the most popular side dish.
Pressing Press
What to Read
- Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level in over a year, pushing refinancing 111% higher annually
- Lollapalooza 'at risk' if state entertainment tax is approved, organizer says
- 3 ways falling mortgage rates could impact the housing market (and homebuyers)
- New York real estate firms raising big bet on Loop offices
- Real Estate Is Entering Its AI Slop Era
- These are the 5 hottest housing markets in Chicago
- Is ICE freezing Chicago’s North Side housing market?
- Mag Mile revival gains steam after weak demand lowers rents
- Baby boomers' property tax revolt
- Chicago ranked No. 1 winter destination for cold-weather lovers
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
