|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Every Season Feels Permanent Until It Isn't
It's graduation season, which always makes me think back to when I graduated from good old Carl Sandburg High School.
Back then, graduation parties were just what you did. Especially on the South Side.
You graduated high school, your family came over, your friends came over, someone fired up the grill, and at some point there was probably a keg in the backyard.
That was just kind of how it went.
A lot of my closest high school friends lived within walking distance of my house. Some were only a few houses away. Others were a block or two. We were close enough to walk to school, close enough to meet up without making plans, and close enough that it felt like our little world was never going to change.
So naturally, when I graduated, we had everyone over at my house.
Family. Friends. My older brother. His friends. Everyone was there.
I remember it feeling different than any other party we'd had growing up. It was probably the first time we were openly drinking with our parents around. Nobody was sneaking around anymore. We were all heading off to college and, in a very South Side kind of way, it felt like a rite of passage.
Later that night, after most of the family had gone home, a bunch of us ended up sitting in my parents' garage.
We were sitting in those old brown folding chairs that every family seemed to own back then. The walls were covered with sports pennants from games my dad had gone to over the years, and of course there was the famous 1985 Junkyard Dogs Bears poster hanging on the wall. The old garage refrigerator looked like it had survived three decades and was covered with magnets from family vacations we'd taken when I was a kid.
My buddies, our girlfriends, my older brother, and some of his friends were all sitting around talking about where we'd be in a few months.
Illinois. ISU. Eastern. Community college.
One of my best friends sitting there that night was about to become my college roommate. We were already planning football weekends, talking about who would visit who, and figuring out when we'd all get together.
Looking back, it's funny.
We spent more time talking about when we'd see each other than acknowledging everything was about to change.
At the time, I thought we'd always be that group.
Maybe not in the same garage, but somehow the same.
I couldn't have been more wrong.
Summer ended. People left. New friends entered the picture. Life started pulling everyone in different directions.
And before you even realize it, the season that felt like it would last forever was over.
Graduation season always makes me think about that.
Not because of the party. Not because of the keg in the backyard.
But because it reminds me how every season of life feels like it'll last forever when you're living through it.
The real estate market is no different.
Every spring, inventory moves quickly, buyers are engaged, and momentum builds.
Then summer arrives. Vacations start. Kids get out of school. Life gets busy. The market doesn't stop, but it changes.
That's why this time of year is always interesting to watch.
Not because I expect some dramatic shift.
But because the mistake many people make is assuming today's market conditions will still be here 60 days from now.
Markets change. Usually much more gradually than people realize.
Looking back, what makes me smile is that none of us knew it.
We were so busy talking about football weekends, college visits, and when we'd see each other next that we never stopped to appreciate what was actually happening.
We were living the final chapter of a season that had defined our lives for years.
And none of us realized it was ending.
That's usually how it works. The biggest shifts don't announce themselves. They happen gradually.
A little less activity. A few fewer buyers.
I'm already starting to see it. Showings aren't quite as packed as they were a few weeks ago.
A couple more listings taking a little longer to move.
Then one day you look up and realize you've entered a new season.
Funny enough, that garage is still there. The sports pennants are still hanging. The old refrigerator is probably still running. And I wouldn't be surprised if that Junkyard Dogs Bears poster is still on the wall.
But the season isn't. None of them are.
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Demand bounced back in a big way. After slowing during Memorial Day weekend, buyer activity surged this week. That's not unusual after a holiday week, but while demand was strong, it still hasn't reached the fever pitch we saw during the height of the spring market.
New inventory jumped as well. Many sellers target the period immediately after Memorial Day to hit the market, hoping to take advantage of summer buyers. As expected, new listings surged this week.
Mortgage rates improved slightly. Rates were a touch lower week-over-week, providing a small boost to affordability and helping keep buyers engaged.
Contracts were way up. After a slower holiday week, buyers got back to work. Pending sales increased significantly, which is exactly what we typically see following a holiday slowdown.
Downtown continues to show signs of life. One encouraging trend I've noticed is the return of empty nesters and out-of-state buyers to the downtown market. That segment has been quieter over the last few years, so seeing more activity there is a positive sign heading into summer.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
The Easy Deals Are Gone One thing I've noticed over the last few weeks is that the deals getting to the closing table are requiring more work.
Not because buyers have disappeared. Not because sellers have disappeared.
But because both sides are adjusting to a market that feels a little different than it did earlier this spring.
Buyers are becoming more selective. Sellers are still anchored to spring expectations. Inspection issues seem to carry more weight. And negotiations are taking a little longer to work through.
The deals are still getting done. They're just not quite as easy as they were a few months ago.
Buyer Cancellations Are Creeping Up We've also seen a small increase in buyer cancellations recently.
I don't view this as a red flag.
In fact, it's probably a sign that buyers feel like they have a few more options than they did earlier this year.
When inventory was tighter, buyers often felt pressure to move quickly and make decisions on the spot.
Today, some buyers are more willing to walk away if something doesn't feel right, whether it's inspection concerns, financing issues, or simply finding another home they like better.
The Return of Shopping This spring, many buyers felt like they had one chance and one chance only.
Now I'm seeing more buyers compare properties, revisit neighborhoods, and take a little more time before making a decision.
That's not necessarily a bad thing.
It's simply another sign that the market is becoming a little more balanced.
The urgency hasn't disappeared. But buyers are starting to feel like they can breathe again.
|
|
|
 |
|
Single Family Homes Single-family homes really showed up this week. The official start of the summer market always kicks off right after Memorial Day weekend, and with that came a huge wave of new inventory. A lot of single-family sellers are families with kids, and many want to get their homes on the market before school lets out and summer schedules fully begin. For the first time in a while, it finally felt like buyers had real options again. Over the last few weeks, we may have only seen one or two strong homes hit the market all week. This week? We started seeing one or two good ones hit every single day. Supply is definitely building, and buyers are finally getting a little more selection. That said, demand had no problem meeting the new inventory.
Some of the bidding wars got wild again, especially on homes that were updated, well-priced, and move-in ready. The luxury market also continues to perform very well, particularly properties with high-end finishes and thoughtful upgrades. The homes struggling right now are the ones reaching too aggressively on price or luxury properties that still need a significant amount of work. Overall, this is still very much a hardcore seller's market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village We saw a massive wave of new inventory hit the market this week. We anticipated that with the official launch of the summer market after Memorial Day, and it absolutely showed up. Good options weren't just hitting once or twice a week anymore, we started seeing strong listings hit daily. That's really the biggest shift as we move from the spring market into the summer market. During the spring, buyers may have only had one or two good options the entire week. Now, we're seeing one or two solid opportunities hit every single day. Inventory is definitely building, especially across single-families, townhouses, and duplex-downs. In fact, we saw several townhomes and duplex-downs hit daily this week after only seeing maybe one good one a week earlier this spring. At the same time, demand softened slightly. Yes, multiple offers are still happening and some situations still got crazy, but the newer summer buyers entering the market are not quite as aggressive as the spring buyers were. The offers are strong, just not quite as reckless.
The reason the market still feels so intense is because many of the spring buyers never actually bought anything. Those buyers are now rolling directly into the summer market and competing for the new inventory hitting the shelves. That's going to be one of the more interesting trends to watch this summer, whether the increase in inventory can finally start catching up to the backlog of buyer demand. Overall, this is still very much a hardcore seller's market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale Same as above.
West Loop West Loop still feels a little hit or miss right now. Some weeks demand feels like it's really picking up, and other weeks it feels noticeably quieter. That inconsistency continues to be one of the more interesting dynamics in the neighborhood compared to other parts of the city. Like everywhere else, we saw a big wave of new inventory hit the market this week as the summer market officially kicked off. A lot of sellers had been holding off until after Memorial Day, and now much of that inventory is finally coming online.
Demand was solid this week, but we're still not seeing buyers get quite as aggressive with offers as we are in other neighborhoods. Well-priced, well-positioned properties are still moving relatively quickly, especially homes with updated finishes and strong presentation. At the same time, there are some very solid one- and two-bedroom units that are priced fairly well but are a little dated, and those properties are sitting longer than they probably would have earlier this spring. The luxury market continues to perform well, particularly properties with show-stopping finishes and a true wow factor. Overall, the West Loop market still leans in slight favor to sellers.
Old Town Old Town is still a very intense marketplace. We saw a healthy amount of summer inventory hit after Memorial Day, which was expected. A lot of sellers were waiting for the summer market to officially kick off, and this week we saw that inventory finally start to come out. The biggest increase came from duplex-downs, townhouses, and a wider range of two-bed, two-bath condos. Buyers finally had more options to look at, but demand was right there to meet the new supply. The high-rise market in Old Town also continues to perform very well. It remains one of the few areas in the city where units without in-unit washer/dryers are still moving relatively quickly, which says a lot about the strength of buyer demand in that pocket. The big thing to watch as we move deeper into summer is how the market absorbs this new inventory, especially with the summer buyer pool now becoming more active. For now, Old Town is still very much a seller's market.
South Loop South Loop felt just okay this week. Like the rest of the city, we saw a pretty big wave of inventory hit the market, especially in the three-bedroom condo and townhouse categories. Sellers clearly waited until after Memorial Day to launch, and now we're starting to see that inventory build. The challenge continues to be the entry-level market. A lot of the one- to two-bedroom units that are slightly dated are simply doing okay. Many of them are sitting on the market and collecting days, especially if they don't have upgrades, standout views, or strong pricing. Demand overall felt pretty mediocre this week. The well-priced properties with updated finishes are still moving relatively quickly, but a large portion of the inventory is starting to linger and stack up. It'll be interesting to watch how the summer months play out here, particularly for units with strong skyline or lake views. South Loop has traditionally attracted a lot of in-town buyers during the summer, so that will be a key trend to monitor. At the same time, many buyers are still being pushed toward South Loop because of its relative affordability and the fact that competition tends to be less intense than in some of the other neighborhoods around the city. Right now, I'd call South Loop more of a balanced market.
New East Side & The Loop The New Eastside and Loop markets saw a noticeable wave of new inventory hit this week, especially larger units. Right now, the properties performing best are the entry-level units that check all the boxes, in-unit washer/dryers, updated finishes, and strong views. Those units are still moving relatively quickly when priced correctly. On the flip side, the dated units or properties reaching a bit too aggressively on price are starting to sit. As we head deeper into summer, inventory is likely going to continue building in these areas.
One of the biggest trends to watch here will be the return of the in-town and empty nester buyer. Historically, those buyers become much more active during the summer months, and if that buyer pool shows up in a meaningful way this year, this area could quietly become one of the stronger seller's markets in the city for the first time since pre-COVID. That's the wildcard. For now, this is a slight edge towards sellers.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast This area saw a major wave of summer inventory hit the market this week. The properties performing best right now are the ones that check every buyer box, updated finishes, move-in ready condition, strong views, in-unit washer/dryers, and reasonable HOA fees. Those properties are actually moving pretty quickly, especially in the luxury category, which is the strongest we've seen that segment perform in a while. At the same time, the dated luxury properties are struggling. We're also seeing a softer middle-tier market, where units that feel slightly overpriced or need updating are sitting and building market time.
One noticeable trend has been the western portion of River North feeling softer than the eastern side. A lot of buyers still seem hesitant about that pocket because of the casino development, and some properties there simply are not moving as quickly as expected. Meanwhile, in eastern River North and parts of Streeterville, the biggest challenge continues to be high HOA fees and dated interiors. Those units are having a much tougher time finding traction. The big trend to watch this summer, just like in the Loop and New Eastside, is whether the empty nester and out-of-state buyer pool comes back in a meaningful way.
Those are historically major summer buyers for these neighborhoods, and if they return aggressively this year, it could completely shift the dynamics of the market and push these areas much more firmly into seller's market territory. For now, though, I'd still call this market a slight edge toward sellers.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller's market across all categories.
- Downtown Core: Is feeling more like a balanced market.
|
 |
|
|
Q1 2026 Real Estate Numbers - Closings, Market Time, Months of Inventory & Prices | Laricy Live E204 This week on Laricy Live, Matt Laricy breaks down the Q1 2026 real estate market data and what it reveals about where the housing market is headed. He analyzes key metrics including closings, inventory, days on market, and sales prices, and explains how shifting trends are impacting buyers and sellers. From pricing strategy and negotiation leverage to buyer demand and interest rates, this episode delivers clear insights and honest analysis to help you navigate the rest of 2026—Laricy style. |
|
|
A Powerhouse Episode — Big Conversations with J. B. Pritzker and Industry Leaders | Laricy Live E203 Join Matt Laricy for an exclusive Chicago real estate podcast featuring Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, House Speaker Chris Welch, and Congressman Adam Kinzinger. In this insightful conversation, they discuss the future of Chicago real estate, housing market trends, economic development, investment opportunities, politics, and what's next for the city's growth. A must-watch for real estate investors, homebuyers, brokers, and anyone interested in the Chicago housing market and Illinois politics. |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything. |
 |
Copyright © All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is: 375 W Erie St Suite 103A Chicago, IL 60654
Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list. |
|
|
| |
|