Current Market Conditions
Thanksgiving. We call it the Big Show.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’m a big holiday guy.
They say your family is one of two types, either the Turkey Trot family, or the family that sleeps in. We’re the intense kind.
I treat holidays like VIP experiences. I start prepping the night before. Then I wake up extra early, hit the gym, and cook straight from sunrise to sundown. We’ve got a full menu dialed in.
We start with apps , you have to have apps. Something to graze on before the Big Show.
Then comes the main event. Not one turkey, two. And you’ve gotta have the right fixings: homemade gravy and homemade cranberry. I don’t care if you think you don’t like cranberry sauce , you still have to try it.
And then the sides. The sides are what make the meal. From my famous White Castle stuffing to Thomas Keller mashed potatoes and everything in between.
And last but not least: dessert. If your pants aren’t tight yet, they will be after pies, olive oil cake, and Black Forest cake.
I complement the day with some of the best wines known to man, high-end champagne to start, then some very exclusive Napa cabs throughout dinner. Every guest gets a custom luxury menu at their place setting, plus a wine list with a rating card. Each wine must be rated. It gets people loose and gives them something fun to talk about that isn’t politics or sports.
We only have three major holidays in my family, and it isn’t VIP high-end if you show up in Lululemon. You need to dress to impress. With the exception of my dad, I encourage cocktail attire, bonus points for men wearing ties. This is the Big Show, not a typical Thursday.
Am I crazy? Yup. But I take our invite-only Turkey Days seriously. I want to create something fun but different, something that feels a little harder to come by these days.
And that’s exactly what happens in the market right now.
We’re coming out of Thanksgiving, which means the calendar is basically sprinting to the finish line. Between now and the new year, new listings get scarce. Most sellers would rather wait for a fresh start in January than deal with showings while they’re traveling, hosting, and juggling holiday chaos. So the open market slows down fast.
But just like the Big Show, the people who do step up right now aren’t casual about it. The listings that hit in this window tend to be more intentional, more polished, and more selective.
A lot of owners don’t want a parade of strangers through their home during the holidays, so they go quiet and go private, straight to the pocket market.
That’s why this time of year, the Private MLS, Zenlist, and TAN often matter more than the public sites. The best opportunities don’t always “go live,” they get whispered first. Inventory will be hit-or-miss until year-end, and then we’ll see the real next wave in the new year.
So just like I keep Thanksgiving a little more exclusive, the market does too, fewer seats, better courses, and the real action behind the velvet rope.
With the Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand was down this week, which is totally typical for a holiday week. We’ll likely see demand continue to taper off a bit from now through Christmas, mainly due to travel and the holiday season. Then right after the first of the year, things usually get crazy again. So for now, expect a seasonal dip in showings; it’s normal and it’s temporary.
New inventory was way down this week, and I expect almost nothing to hit the market this week with Thanksgiving.
Rates ticked up this week. We had been seeing a steady drop, but this week brought a noticeable bump in rates. As of now, there is no effect on the market.
Multiple bids are still common on newer inventory in the outskirts. With less new inventory hitting the market, demand remains high and supply is low, which is keeping competition strong.
Existing inventory is starting to cut prices. A lot of homes that haven’t been moving are reducing now in an effort to get a deal done before year end.
The downtown luxury market is still in a painful spot. The only properties moving are the ones priced well below what the owners originally paid, and demand remains very low.
Market Trends
What's Trending
At the start of the Christmas season, we really want the city to feel attractive again, to pull in in-town buyers, empty nesters, and out-of-state clients who are looking for big-city life. That momentum took a hit this Friday with the shooting in front of the Chicago Theatre. Chicago has already been battling a perception issue downtown, and incidents like this can weigh on buyer confidence, especially for people who are already on the fence about city living. When safety becomes part of the conversation, it adds hesitation and can slow decision-making in the Loop and surrounding downtown markets. That said, perception shifts fast. The holidays still bring visibility to downtown, and if the city responds strongly, we can regain momentum heading into early 2026. The key is continuing to show buyers why downtown is worth it.
Travel is a major factor to watch this holiday season. A lot of people are out of town this time of year, which usually means fewer buyers around to tour homes and fewer sellers willing to list while they are traveling. We saw travel impact the market in July and August, and it will be interesting to see how much it affects this final stretch of the year. Definitely a trend to keep an eye on.
Tax bills are another big one to watch. A lot of homeowners saw their property taxes spike, and that could lead to more inventory hitting the market next year, either because the new bill is not affordable long-term or because people are simply fed up with how high taxes have gotten. Either way, this is a trend worth paying attention to as we head into the new year.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
Even during Thanksgiving week, the market remains very strong. There is not enough inventory at the entry-level price points, which is making that segment incredibly competitive. The luxury market is softer right now, but well-priced or truly unique properties are still moving quickly. Overall, this is very much a seller’s market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
The market here is still unbelievably hot. We almost never see homes flying off the market during the holiday season, but it is still happening. Every sector is active, but the hottest segments right now are townhomes and duplex-downs. Multiple offers are common on new inventory. However, anything that has been sitting on the market presents an opportunity; now is a great time to make an offer and try to secure a deal before next year. This remains a strong seller’s market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
It is still a bit strange in this area. The market is making a comeback, but it is very hit or miss. Properties that are moving tend to be priced at or below market, or they need to offer really high-end upgrades. We are seeing market times increase, which is pretty typical for the holidays. Overall, this is a buyer’s market right now.
Old Town
This is a very hot market. Walk-ups remain the strongest segment, but even the high-rise market here is performing well. The holidays have had virtually no effect on activity. Overall, this is a strong seller’s market.
South Loop
This is still one of the hardest-hit markets in Chicago. Even well-priced entry-level properties are struggling, and luxury homes are taking the longest to sell. One thing we will be watching closely is whether this slowdown is just a result of the holidays or if it carries into the new year. For now, this remains a very strong buyer’s market.
New East Side & The Loop
This area is still getting crushed. The one bright spot is the entry-level market, which is holding up reasonably well. We are also starting to see some positive signs from empty nesters and out-of-state buyers. That said, the mid-tier and luxury segments remain very slow. The only properties moving are those priced aggressively or offering standout, high-end finishes. Overall, this is a huge buyer’s market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
This remains a very tough market. This area has been among the hardest hit in the country in terms of value lost since the pandemic. The big positive is the entry-level segment, which is performing extremely well; those condos are now selling quite fast. However, the mid-tier and luxury markets are still very slow. Once you get above one million dollars, very little is moving unless the property has standout luxury finishes or is priced significantly below what the seller originally paid. Overall, this is a strong buyer’s market.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
The Latest In Laricy
Laricy Uncorked E2 - Pour Decisions & Real Estate Confessions
Matt Laricy is back on Laricy Uncorked with J Maggio, Jamie Daly, and Jessica Foster for another round of laughs, stories, and sips. The crew dives into their favorite wines, wild client experiences, and candid real estate insights—all in true Uncorked fashion. It’s a mix of humor, honesty, and behind-the-scenes moments you won’t want to miss.
Laricy Uncorked E3 - Real Estate Confessions Over Red Wine — The Stories We Shouldn’t Be Telling
Grab a glass and get ready to sip and spill! In this episode of Laricy Uncorked, Matt sits down with John Paul Comes, Lexi Sandroff, and JC Fleming for an unfiltered chat about real estate, peptides, tanning beds, and everything in between. From behind-the-scenes stories to Lexi’s six-month check-in, expect humor, honesty, wild confessions, and team banter you won’t hear anywhere else.
Pressing Press
What to Read
- Loop loss fallout: Chicago homeowners hit with biggest property tax bill hikes in decades
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- A Chicago Neighborhood With a Suburban Vibe Is Seeing Home Prices Soar
- The Trump administration wants to allow crypto-backed mortgages. Here’s why
- Magnificent Mile stores hope holiday shopping season helps boost recovery from pandemic
- This Florida mega-development is turning suburban backyards into a nature paradise
- What Will Lakeview Look Like In 10 Years? New Community Plan Offers A Roadmap
- Downtown Chicago apartment rents jump again amid supply crunch
- Crypto firm's Burling Bank bid ready for state ruling
- They Cashed In. Now, They're Helping Their Kids.
- First-time homebuyers hit record low in Realtor buyer/seller survey
- How Zillow disrupted the real estate industry
- 'Drive until you can afford a house' is making a comeback
- One benefit of the slower housing market? Less buyer regret
- Rents continue to slip in October
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
