Current Market Conditions
Nothing beats Black Friday like working retail.
I worked at Best Buy starting when I was 16 through high school, and then picked up seasonal shifts throughout college. To this day, it’s one of those experiences that sticks with you in a way you don’t realize at the time. I loved working the Black Friday weekend, not because it was easy (it wasn’t), but because it was alive. The whole place felt like it had a heartbeat.
People would literally sleep outside the store for deals. You’d pull into the parking lot in the dark and see lawn chairs, blankets, thermoses, little clusters of people half-awake but buzzing. You could feel the anticipation before you even got to the doors. The air was cold, your breath was visible, and there was this weird mix of excitement and impatience just hanging there. It wasn’t even store-open yet and there was already an energy in the lot like a concert line or a playoff game.
And when we’d show up for our shifts? People would start pressing. Some were friendly, just trying to make small talk because they were excited. But others were looking for any edge they could get, asking what time we’d really open or trying to slip in behind us. We’d get harassed, shouted at, people acting like we were obstacles instead of teenagers in blue polos trying to do a job. It was chaotic, but it was also kind of… unforgettable. It was the ultimate crash course in human behavior.
Because of that intensity, I would always work open to close that weekend. It was super busy, the hours flew by, and honestly I just liked being in the middle of it. Hard work never really bothered me. I’ve always liked the feeling of being useful. And there’s something about a day where you’re running non-stop, helping people, solving problems, and then looking up and realizing twelve hours disappeared without you noticing. That kind of busy feels good.
I was in the audio/visual department, which was basically its own little world in the store. My favorite thing to sell was TVs. Normally you had to work your way up to the big-screen section, but I was obsessed with learning the differences, contrast ratios, refresh rates, brands, which models were actually worth it and which ones were just shiny garbage. I’d read about TVs the way some kids read about cars. So early on they put me in big screens, and I loved it back there. I’ve always been a natural salesman. I like people. I like talking. And I like talking to people about what they care about. Big-screen TVs were perfect for that. People weren’t just buying electronics, they were buying movie nights, Sunday football, family rooms, new apartments… little slices of future life. And I got to be the guide.
Every year there would be some “doorbuster” big-screen deal. And it was always the same story: a model nobody actually wanted the other 51 weeks of the year. Something clunky, dim, no-frills, the kind of TV you’d never recommend to someone who asked you. But that wasn’t the point. They’d basically give it away to get people in the door.
The TV section was all the way in the back of the store, so when the doors opened, people didn’t walk, they sprinted. Like, honest-to-God full-speed run through aisles. It was like watching a stampede but indoors, over a box they hadn’t even seen yet. I saw grown adults nearly trip over kids. I watched people grab the same cart handle and pull like tug-of-war. I saw fist fights break out over who was “first.” And I’m not talking about little shoving matches, I mean real fist fights. Over a TV that was, not even good.
You learn a lot about life working retail on Black Friday in the late 90s and early 2000s. You learn how fast people can go from polite to furious. You learn how much emotion gets wrapped into “winning” a deal. You learn that for some people this is their one big victory of the year, maybe because money’s tight, maybe because life’s hard, maybe because they just need to feel like they got something. And you learn that none of that excuses bad behavior… but it helps you understand it.
And once those door busters were gone, they were gone. There weren’t secret pallets hiding in the back. That was it. But don’t ever tell a customer “we’re out.” No matter how calm you were, no matter how logical your explanation, people wouldn’t accept it. They’d yell. They’d belittle you. They’d say things you still remember years later. One person literally spit on me. (Yup. That happened. And I told the story last year about getting hit.) People go crazy when they lose a deal. People go crazy during the holidays. Something about this season just turns certain people inside out.
And that’s where the market is right now.
We’re seeing people get a little crazy. This happens every December, and every December I talk about how nuts people get. It’s not new, it’s just the seasonal joy we deal with.
Maybe it’s the darkness hitting earlier and messing with people’s heads. Maybe it’s the stress of traveling, the anxiety of seeing family, or the financial pressure the holidays bring. But whatever the mix, it makes the market harder:
- Buyers get more annoyed with the process.
- Sellers get frustrated by the lack of showings.
- Sellers don’t want to show when they do get showings because it’s the holidays.
- Buyers get mad when a place sells before they can see it because they were out of town that weekend.
- Negotiations get more heated.
- Deals get trickier. Everyone HAS to “win.” It’s like they haven’t won a battle all holiday season, so this is the hill they’ll die on.
But just like I used to thrive on seeing those lines wrapping around Best Buy before the doors opened on Black Friday, we have to take a step back and remember: we’re dealing with people.
And a little cheer goes a long way during the holidays.
With the Current
What Else Happened This Week
Demand was the lowest I’ve seen all year, but this happens every year. Thanksgiving week is consistently one of the slowest weeks of the year outside of Christmas week. It’s normal, and we should see activity pick back up this week.
We saw virtually no new inventory this week. That’s typical for the week of Thanksgiving, when most sellers pause listing activity. I wouldn’t read into it beyond the holiday timing; we should see new supply return as we move past the weekend.
Rates were on par with last week.
Deals were down significantly this week, but given the holiday timing, that’s completely expected.
Overall, it was just a very slow week due to the holiday.
Market Trends
What's Trending
I say this every time after a major holiday: new listings always spike the following week. Sellers tend to wait until after the holiday to list, so expect more new inventory to hit this week.
A big trend to watch right now is price drops. Existing inventory is going to cut pricing to get deals done before year-end, so expect reductions to trend from now through the end of the year. Just keep in mind that pricing momentum typically shifts after January 1, and we usually see prices move up in the new year.
Rate cuts are the big thing to watch in December. Right now, the market is increasingly pricing in another Fed cut before year-end. If we do get that cut, it matters. Even modest drops in rates tend to loosen things up quickly, with more buyer confidence, better affordability, and more activity across the board. And that’s why this could be another building block for a strong 2026. Lower rates heading into the new year usually set the stage for more demand once the seasonal slowdown passes. Keep an eye on this one.
At the start of the Christmas season, we really want the city to feel attractive again, to pull in in-town buyers, empty nesters, and out-of-state clients who are looking for big-city life. That momentum took a hit this Friday with the shooting in front of the Chicago Theatre. Chicago has already been battling a perception issue downtown, and incidents like this can weigh on buyer confidence, especially for people who are already on the fence about city living. When safety becomes part of the conversation, it adds hesitation and can slow decision-making in the Loop and surrounding downtown markets. That said, perception shifts fast. The holidays still bring visibility to downtown, and if the city responds strongly, we can regain momentum heading into early 2026. The key is continuing to show buyers why downtown is worth it.
Travel is a major factor to watch this holiday season. A lot of people are out of town this time of year, which usually means fewer buyers around to tour homes and fewer sellers willing to list while they’re traveling. We saw travel impact the market in July and August, and it’ll be interesting to see how much it affects this final stretch of the year. Definitely a trend to keep an eye on.
Tax bills are another big one to watch. A lot of homeowners saw their property taxes spike, and that could lead to more inventory hitting the market next year, either because the new bill isn’t affordable long-term or because people are simply fed up with how high taxes have gotten. Either way, this is a trend worth paying attention to as we head into the new year.
Checking Inventory
Single Family Homes
Single-family homes continue to outperform expectations. While this segment is typically slower seasonally, record-low inventory at entry-level price points is pushing strong demand toward the best listings, many of which are receiving multiple offers. The luxury market has eased somewhat, but homes that are well priced and/or show extremely well are still moving fast. Overall, this remains a sellers market.
Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Roscoe Village
The market here is still performing very well. Entry-level properties that are priced correctly are selling extremely fast. Duplex-downs and townhouses remain the most sought-after and hardest to find inventory, and that shortage is defying normal seasonal trends and pushing these to move quickly. We are seeing a slowdown in sales on listings that are priced a bit high or need significant work, but overall this area remains a very strong sellers market.
West Town, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Logan Square, Avondale
Same as above.
West Loop
We’re seeing certain properties in the West Loop move quickly, but they need to be priced below market or offer something truly special. Otherwise, days on market are climbing and inventory is building. This area used to be as hot as Lincoln Park is today. If you even caught a whiff of a listing coming, it was gone. That same property today is sitting. Will that change next year? Time will tell, but for now, this remains a buyers market.
Old Town
This remains a very hot market for sellers. Inventory is still too low to meet demand, and the best-performing properties continue to be walk-ups. We are also seeing high-rises without in-unit washer/dryers move relatively fast, which isn’t happening anywhere else in the city. Overall, this is a strong sellers market.
South Loop
What a difference this market is compared to the outskirts. This feels like one of the toughest areas right now. We’re not seeing many properties go under contract, and even listings that are priced well and show well aren’t moving quickly, which you can’t say for most of the market. It will be interesting to see if this turns after the first of the year, but for now this remains a strong buyers market.
New East Side & The Loop
This remains the hardest or second hardest hit area in the city, and recent events here haven’t helped. Entry-level properties with all the bells and whistles that are priced below market are still moving, but beyond that, activity has been very limited. To see a real shift, we need a stronger wave of empty nesters and out-of-state buyers. We typically get a bump from that group during the holidays, but so far the volume hasn’t been enough to move the needle. For now, this remains a strong buyers market.
River North, Streeterville, Gold Coast
We’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that entry-level properties are selling very fast, as long as they’re move-in ready, priced well, and have in-unit washer/dryer. For the first time since 2019, we’re consistently seeing that segment move, which is a great sign. The bad news? Mid-tier and luxury properties are essentially dead right now. Showings are extremely light, and the only high-end homes that are moving are either truly top-of-the-line or priced well below what the seller paid. Outside of those exceptions, activity has been minimal. Overall, this remains a buyers market.
The Big Picture:
- Outskirts: It remains a seller’s market across all categories,
- Downtown Core: Is a buyer’s market.
Podcasts & Vlogs
The Latest in Laricy
What’s Happening in Chicago Real Estate This 2025 Holiday Season? | Laricy Live E192
Matt Laricy shares a timely Chicago real estate update for the holiday season in this Laricy Live episode. He explains how the market shifts between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, covering changes in buyer demand, inventory, pricing, and days on market. Matt outlines what holiday buyers and sellers should expect, why activity slows in December, and how these trends create opportunities. If you’re considering buying or listing during the holidays, this video offers clear, data-driven guidance.
The Big Merger | Laricy Live E191
This week on Laricy Live, we’re diving into the wave of consolidation sweeping through the real estate industry. Major companies are merging, teams are joining forces, and the landscape is shifting fast. We break down what’s driving all this change, from market pressures to efficiency plays, and what it means for agents, buyers, and sellers alike. Will bigger really mean better? And will it change how you buy, sell, or operate in today’s market? Tune in as we unpack what consolidation means for the future of real estate.
Have a great week! Let me know if you need anything.
